China-linked hackers ran an autonomous multi-agent system to breach Taiwanese government and nuclear safety agencies, the first reported use of AI agents in a state-linked attack on critical infrastructure. The same week, Anthropic reportedly withheld a more capable internal model from release and Chinese open-weight firms delayed weight releases, both citing misuse risk. Ebola deaths reached 2,327, with the WHO warning the outbreak could become the largest ever.
"Some thoughts on Dario’s post: 1. Dario does not actually address Gavin Baker’s account of what he said – something he could easily deny if it were inaccurate. 2. Dario claims his critics live in a “bubble” where all regulation equals regulatory capture. He calls this an overly simplified view and notes that “Many people outside this bubble think of regulation as something that constrains corporate power and benefits ordinary people.” This argument is a straw man. Of course treating all regulation as capture would be overly simplified – but almost no one holds that view. I have repeatedly argued for strong antitrust enforcement to keep industries competitive, especially Big Tech. If Anthropic continues toward monopoly or duopoly status, I would be among the first to demand those rules apply. 3. Regulatory capture is not vague or in the eye of the beholder. Nobel laureate George Stigler defined it as regulation acquired by an industry and designed and operated primarily for its benefit. Stigler challenged the traditional view that government regulation arises from a benevolent state protecting the public from market failures. Rather, industry groups have concentrated stakes and pour resources into influencing regulators, whereas the public’s stake is diffuse and unorganized. The revolving door between companies and the agencies that regulate them compounds the problem. Anthropic understands these dynamics: it has hired multiple senior Biden AI-policy officials and built a substantial government-affairs operation plus a network of aligned organizations to push its preferred frameworks at state and federal levels. 4. Dario has consistently pushed for a new federal agency to review and approve frontier models prior to release – a proposal framed variously as an “FDA for AI,” an “FAA for AI,” and most recently a “FINRA for AI.” I call it a “DMV for AI” because a review process modeled on the FAA or FDA (which takes years) or FINRA (which issues rules for a staid industry widely seen as protecting incumbents) will create long queues as AI models wait for testing and approval. This process will only become more labyrinthine as rules accumulate to prevent theoretical harms. This would handicap the U.S. relative to China, which will not adopt the same constraints. It would also undermine Anthropic’s own business model, whose pricing power depends on remaining ahead of open models. Whatever Dario states today, it is difficult to believe the company would simply accept outcomes that erase that advantage. 5. Anthropic is on track to become one of the most valuable companies in history, with the resources to navigate any approval process and shape the rules while competitors wait. Dario wants open models under heavier scrutiny – he has called them dangerous in Senate testimony, criticized them for not being centrally monitored or withdrawn, and linked them to IP theft. He says he has never sought a ban, but he could achieve a similar result by insisting that identical rules apply to both open and closed models. The U.S. risks becoming an island of costly closed models while the rest of the world races ahead with broader choice. 6. Dario acknowledges that AI is structurally centralizing but attributes this mainly to chips and scaling laws. Access to compute matters, but the deeper risk is who decides which capabilities are available to whom. His preferred pre-deployment testing and FAA/FINRA-style oversight would place that gatekeeping power in a federal bureaucracy working hand-in-glove with a small number of frontier labs – reinforcing centralization rather than countering it. 7. The second part of Dario’s post assumes we have amnesia about Anthropic’s well-orchestrated campaigns hyping AI fears. His May 2025 claim that AI would wipe out 50 percent of entry-level knowledge jobs within five years still lacks supporting evidence fifteen months later. Similarly Anthropic breathlessly promoted its heavily contrived “blackmail” study on 60 Minutes. Yet Dario blames public negativity on a long-standing loss of trust in institutions rather than his own messaging. 8. These narratives have done more than anything to shape public fear. People are left asking the same question Mark Zuckerberg posed: why race to build a future you describe in such negative terms? Thomas Sowell’s "The Vision of the Anointed" captures the mindset – elite intellectuals convinced that only they are enlightened enough to control the outcome. As Zuckerberg notes, concentrating power in the hands of an enlightened few has rarely produced the promised results; the practitioners turn out to be less enlightened in practice than in self-conception. 9. Gavin Baker summarized the disagreement cleanly on our pod: Dario believes frontier AI is too powerful to distribute; we believe it is too powerful to centralize. Dario appears to believe, sincerely, that safety and progress are best served by centralizing authority in a marriage of corporate and state power. The weight of human history gives us reason to fear that outcome."
View on X →"Something amazing is happening in the debate about text watermarking in Claude. This is my best attempt to make sense of the quickly evolving situation. The key thing to keep in mind is that it is in fact possible to watermark LLM-generated text without degrading output quality (and in fact achieve a much stronger property, which is that the distribution of possible outputs is unchanged.) This is well established technically, and it has been implemented by Google / Gemini for over two years, and no one seemingly cared. Admittedly, quality-preserving watermarking is one of those counterintuitive facts about probability, like that annoying Monty Hall problem (the one with two goats behind three doors). The theorem-understanding part of my brain has no problem with it, but the intuitive part of my brain is screaming that there must be some mistake. I have no interest in re-litigating this. What I’m curious about is why, when Anthropic announced that they are rolling out watermarking that doesn’t degrade outputs, so many of their customers seem to have concluded that they are lying. I think three things went wrong: 1. Anthropic’s rollout was terrible from a comms perspective. There was no blog post; just a quiet support page with the title “How Claude marks AI-generated content” that said strangely little about how Claude actually marks AI-generated content. And it had no explanation of why they’ve rolled it out worldwide even though it’s required by law only in the EU. No transparency about who gets access to the watermark verifier. 2. Generally low trust and high suspicion about Anthropic’s motivations, given their statements and actions over the last few months / years. 3. Unresolved questions about the right tradeoff between individual users’ freedoms and the collective benefits of pervasive watermarking. Unlike Pangram-style AI detection, most people didn’t even know this was a thing, and it’s always uncomfortable to find out that a thing exists at the same time that you find out it’s mandatory with no opt-out. Evidently surprised by the strength of the backlash, Anthropic has been doing damage control, focusing on explaining how it works. But this only addresses the first point above. Once the narrative that they are lying took hold, people seem to be willing to reject anything they say about this topic, including the feasibility of distortion-free watermarking. This is also a textbook example (I plan to use it in my classes!) to explain why the “tech policy moves slowly because politicians don’t understand tech” narrative is ridiculous. Tech policy does move slowly, but for the same reasons all policy moves slowly. Figuring out the right tradeoffs in almost any situation — and getting public buy-in — is genuinely hard and can never happen at the speed of tech. If tech policy were to move even half as fast as people constantly claim they want it to move, absolute chaos would result. This situation is a good example."
View on X →"turns out just being the best at something pays off. glad they picked METR and Redwood. i'd wish DC would do more of this instead of playing all these status and affiliation games and well that USG would be sufficiently resourced with expertise and capacity, so they could do it"
View on X →"Very good piece from @gwbstr, on when/whether China will get worried about open-weight models. tldr: 1) Xi's Shanghai speech should not be read as a full-throated endorsement of open weight models but 2) what's concerning for Xi is not the same as what is concerning for western AI policy analysts - a few examples in the screenshots. Full piece: https://www.techpolicy.press/will-china-crack-down-on-open-weight-models/"
View on X →"NEW: Anthropic hit $65 bil+ in annualized (run rate) revenue in July, up from $47 bil in May. Comes ahead of an IPO expected as soon as this fall. w/ @nmasc_ @RebeccaTorrenc5 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-17/anthropic-revenue-run-rate-surpasses-65-billion-ahead-of-ipo?srnd=undefined"
View on X →"Interesting how a 69-year-old woman goes to jail for non-violent protesting while AI CEO's don't, even after their past products caused child suicides and they say their future products may cause human extinction:"
View on X →"defenders can see the future, and have a narrow window to uplevel their cybersecurity practices now. key is to uplevel fundamentals and apply the best AI tools. what we’re doing at OpenAI, and where other organizations can start: https://blog.gregbrockman.com/the-defenders-window"
View on X →"We're 1 of 14 orgs worldwide (out of 400+ applicants!) selected to build on @OpenAI's Industrial Policy for the Intelligence Age. Over the next 6 months, NTI | bio will design a cross-border info-sharing architecture for AI x bio risk to build a more resilient society for everyone."
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